As the Asia Cup 2025 inches closer to the Super Fours, Group B toppers Sri Lanka find themselves in the must-win situation as they face a determined Afghanistan side in the 11th match of the Asia Cup on Thursday at Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi. The match will determine which two teams progress from this tightly contested group, with Bangladesh also in the mix.

Group B has proven to be a hotbed of competition, with Sri Lanka and Afghanistan each having 4 points. However, the battle now hinges on Net Run Rate (NRR), where Sri Lanka and Afghanistan currently enjoy a clear edge over Bangladesh. Sri Lanka, unbeaten so far, sit at the top of the table and only need to avoid a heavy defeat against Afghanistan to ensure progression to the Super Fours.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, have a simple but challenging task – win by any margin, and they will leapfrog Bangladesh to secure their place in the next round. Bangladesh, having completed all their group fixtures, would only hope for a Sri Lankan win. But if Sri Lanka happened to lose, Bangladesh would want them to lose heavily to keep their campaign alive. 

Sri Lanka come into the match as group leaders, with two strong performances under their belt. Their consistent bowling attack has been key to their success. Kusal Mendis and Pathum Nissanka have been the backbone in the batting department. While, Wanindu Hasaranga and Dushmantha Chameera have been standout performers with the ball, with Hasaranga particularly wreaking havoc. They will need to come out stronger because they nearly escaped defeat against Hong Kong in their previous game. If it wasn't for Pathum Nissanka's 68, Sri Lanka would have suffered a heavy defeat. 

What works in Sri Lanka’s favor is their healthy NRR, which gives them a significant buffer. Even a narrow loss to Afghanistan won’t threaten their qualification, unless the defeat is by a massive margin—something they’ll be keen to avoid at all costs. For Afghanistan, it’s now or never. With a promising start to the tournament, they’ve risen through the ranks. Their strength so far has been their spin bowling, with Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad dictating terms. Overall, Afghanistan are in a relatively favourable position thanks to their superior NRR over Bangladesh; they would hope to pull off a stunning win against Sri Lanka to further highlight their potential. Additionally, they would expect their batters to step up and help the side trap Sri Lanka. 

Head-to-head

Matches - 8

SL won - 5

AFG won - 3

Afghanistan possible XI: Saqidullah Ataq, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Mohammad Nabi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Karim Janat, Rashid Khan (c), Noor Ahmad, AM Ghazanfar, Fazalhaq Farooqi

Sri Lanka possible XI: Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (c), Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Nuwan Thushara